Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

559.83 – 441.95

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

825 – 611

Prediction correct · off by 217.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 889.1 ±8.1

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 254.94Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 161.97Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 142.92Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.3 ±9.8

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 199.01Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 151.1Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 91.84Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 5907, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

559.8 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 5907, 5712

Auto

112.8 20%

Teleop

276.8 50%

Endgame

167.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1833, 8085, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

442 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1833, 8085, 6721

Auto

102.6 23%

Teleop

239.4 55%

Endgame

97.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.75 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score559.8pts

Blue projected score442pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.9
Score range: 347–655
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1436 vs event baseline 529.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

889.1Season APEX557.3

112.8Auto102.6

276.8Teleop239.4

167.7Endgame97.2

120Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	151	92
teleop	498	309
endgame	176	210
foul	0	0
total	825	611

Result

Final score

825 – 611

Prediction correct · off by 217.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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