Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

322.7 – 487.83

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

509 – 576

Prediction correct · off by 137.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.7 ±9.3

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 131.88Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 73.07Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 117.75Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 849.1 ±9.3

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 191.23Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 76.16Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 220.44Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 11415, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4499, 11415, 7890

Auto

67.2 20%

Teleop

175.2 53%

Endgame

85.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9401, 484, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

487.8 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9401, 484, 10021

Auto

88.2 18%

Teleop

213.0 43%

Endgame

190.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.43 · Blue 3.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score322.7pts

Blue projected score487.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -165.1
Score range: 228–583
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1085 vs event baseline 527.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.7Season APEX849.1

67.2Auto88.2

175.2Teleop213

85.6Endgame190

151Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	107
teleop	269	294
endgame	116	175
foul	15	0
total	509	576

Result

Final score

509 – 576

Prediction correct · off by 137.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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