Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

376.75 – 401.52

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

395 – 569

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.4 ±9.8

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 161.33Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 83.69Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 131.73Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 787.4 ±8.1

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 133.24Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 76.93Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 191.35Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 1741, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.8 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4143, 1741, 3176

Auto

74.1 20%

Teleop

223.1 60%

Endgame

76.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 3414, 7457

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 930, 3414, 7457

Auto

109.7 27%

Teleop

213.8 53%

Endgame

83.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.07 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score376.8pts

Blue projected score401.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 81%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 49%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.8
Score range: 282–497
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 964 vs event baseline 526.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.4Season APEX787.4

74.1Auto109.7

223.1Teleop213.8

76.4Endgame83.4

177Consistency182

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	132
teleop	202	290
endgame	68	147
foul	0	0
total	395	569

Result

Final score

395 – 569

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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