Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

428.33 – 611.82

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

379 – 653

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.4 ±9.3

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 104.83Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 170.52Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 152.98Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 882.6 ±8.7

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 265.24Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 154.68Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 191.9Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6721, 2767, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

428.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6721, 2767, 5712

Auto

82.9 20%

Teleop

216.4 52%

Endgame

118.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5687, 1002, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

611.8 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5687, 1002, 1833

Auto

143.6 24%

Teleop

342.4 57%

Endgame

119.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.46 · Blue 3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score428.3pts

Blue projected score611.8pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 81%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 53%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -183.5
Score range: 333–707
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1032 vs event baseline 526.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.4Season APEX882.6

82.9Auto143.6

216.4Teleop342.4

118Endgame119.2

166Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	142
teleop	185	407
endgame	94	104
foul	0	0
total	379	653

Result

Final score

379 – 653

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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