Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

542.24 – 462.59

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

628 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 167.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 880.6 ±8.1

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 124.37Rank 27Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 251.42Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 166.45Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.6 ±9.8

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 179.48Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 77.25Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 205.86Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 195, 1768, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

542.2 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 195, 1768, 3641

Auto

94.3 18%

Teleop

298.9 56%

Endgame

142.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 51%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1918, 2377, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

462.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1918, 2377, 1732

Auto

77.6 17%

Teleop

259.4 56%

Endgame

122.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 51%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.7 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score542.2pts

Blue projected score462.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.7
Score range: 368–637
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 842 vs event baseline 528.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

880.6Season APEX621.6

94.3Auto77.6

298.9Teleop259.4

142.9Endgame122.2

116Consistency173

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	101
teleop	346	75
endgame	160	23
foul	15	15
total	628	214

Result

Final score

628 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 167.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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