Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

778.64 – 402.7

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

430 – 457

Prediction missed · off by 201.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 867.3 ±9.3

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 352.85Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 189.26Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 236.53Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.3 ±8.7

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 154.5Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 178.82Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 69.38Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 469, 9401

/ 100 compat

Projected

778.6 pts

~3.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8044, 469, 9401

Auto

139.1 18%

Teleop

458.5 58%

Endgame

194.8 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 58%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5907, 1023, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5907, 1023, 1741

Auto

119.9 29%

Teleop

211.8 52%

Endgame

76.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 58%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.35 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score778.6pts

Blue projected score402.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 58%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 375.9
Score range: 307–875
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 887 vs event baseline 532.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

867.3Season APEX717.3

139.1Auto119.9

458.5Teleop211.8

194.8Endgame76.7

161Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	72
teleop	210	241
endgame	125	144
foul	5	0
total	430	457

Result

Final score

430 – 457

Prediction missed · off by 201.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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