Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

455.05 – 484.91

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

569 – 540

Prediction missed · off by 84.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±8.7

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 185.59Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 118.79Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 150.67Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.8 ±8.7

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 90.8Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 115.02Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 279.09Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1833, 930, 1023

/ 100 compat

Projected

455.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1833, 930, 1023

Auto

136.0 29%

Teleop

280.3 61%

Endgame

44.8 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7890, 3414, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.9 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7890, 3414, 1261

Auto

96.0 20%

Teleop

226.0 46%

Endgame

164.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.01 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score455.1pts

Blue projected score484.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 84%

Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 62%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.9
Score range: 359–581
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 1109 vs event baseline 530.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

777.1Season APEX677.8

136Auto96

280.3Teleop226

44.8Endgame164.5

170Consistency189

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	126
teleop	341	312
endgame	123	102
foul	0	0
total	569	540

Result

Final score

569 – 540

Prediction missed · off by 84.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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