Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

654.27 – 250.7

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

584 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 131.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 808 ±8.7

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 238.63Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 208.93Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 206.71Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.7 ±10.4

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 93.27Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 51.99Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 105.44Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 1732, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

654.3 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10021, 1732, 1792

Auto

88.4 14%

Teleop

389.3 59%

Endgame

177.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 6721, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11415, 6721, 3940

Auto

43.5 17%

Teleop

173.1 69%

Endgame

32.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.26 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score654.3pts

Blue projected score250.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 55%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 403.6
Score range: 155–750
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 531.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

808Season APEX459.7

88.4Auto43.5

389.3Teleop173.1

177Endgame32.7

152Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	62
teleop	321	216
endgame	176	165
foul	0	0
total	584	443

Result

Final score

584 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 131.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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