Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

699.49 – 608.65

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

541 – 518

Prediction correct · off by 124.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 759.4 ±8.7

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 195.42Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 228.33Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 275.74Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 899.3 ±9.8

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 116.94Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 168.13Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 323.58Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1024, 469, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

699.5 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1024, 469, 67

Auto

152.6 22%

Teleop

355.3 51%

Endgame

192.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 58%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 4143, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

608.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 930, 4143, 2481

Auto

88.2 15%

Teleop

400.8 67%

Endgame

110.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 58%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.87 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score699.5pts

Blue projected score608.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 58%, blue 48%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.8
Score range: 514–794
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 1059 vs event baseline 529.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

759.4Season APEX899.3

152.6Auto88.2

355.3Teleop400.8

192.1Endgame110

208Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	74
teleop	321	313
endgame	89	131
foul	15	0
total	541	518

Result

Final score

541 – 518

Prediction correct · off by 124.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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