Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

459.99 – 510.75

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

597 – 444

Prediction missed · off by 101.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 901.8 ±8.7

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 247.67Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 139.49Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 72.83Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.6 ±9.3

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 107.83Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 314.36Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 88.56Rank 27Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5687, 5000, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

460 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5687, 5000, 3414

Auto

97.8 21%

Teleop

271.8 58%

Endgame

95.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 54%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3940, 1261, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

510.8 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3940, 1261, 195

Auto

63.9 13%

Teleop

274.2 54%

Endgame

167.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 54%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.97 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score460pts

Blue projected score510.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.8
Score range: 365–606
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1041 vs event baseline 529.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

901.8Season APEX681.6

97.8Auto63.9

271.8Teleop274.2

95.2Endgame167

169Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	149	114
teleop	303	199
endgame	145	131
foul	0	0
total	597	444

Result

Final score

597 – 444

Prediction missed · off by 101.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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