Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

594.41 – 521.55

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

684 – 685

Prediction missed · off by 126.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 819.7 ±8.8

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 275.8Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 249.87Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 68.74Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 842 ±8.7

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 168.41Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 294.07Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 59.07Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 4028, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

594.4 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 359, 4028, 1002

Auto

100.9 17%

Teleop

339.3 57%

Endgame

157.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 57%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 8044, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

521.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1720, 8044, 484

Auto

109.8 21%

Teleop

314.2 60%

Endgame

97.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 57%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.66 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score594.4pts

Blue projected score521.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 57%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.9
Score range: 426–690
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1369 vs event baseline 532.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

819.7Season APEX842

100.9Auto109.8

339.3Teleop314.2

157.5Endgame97.8

193Consistency215

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	152	167
teleop	350	345
endgame	182	173
foul	0	0
total	684	685

Result

Final score

684 – 685

Prediction missed · off by 126.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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