Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

457.71 – 499.69

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

428 – 630

Prediction correct · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 623.5 ±9.8

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 106.16Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 154.01Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 197.54Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 823.6 ±9.8

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 70.17Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 257.22Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 172.3Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8085, 5712, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

457.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8085, 5712, 1918

Auto

106.9 23%

Teleop

239.4 52%

Endgame

113.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1710, 67, 9401

/ 100 compat

Projected

499.7 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1710, 67, 9401

Auto

54.5 11%

Teleop

235.5 49%

Endgame

192.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.05 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score457.7pts

Blue projected score499.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 81%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42
Score range: 364–594
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1058 vs event baseline 524.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

623.5Season APEX823.6

106.9Auto54.5

239.4Teleop235.5

113.4Endgame192.9

172Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	119
teleop	205	413
endgame	127	93
foul	45	5
total	428	630

Result

Final score

428 – 630

Prediction correct · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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