Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

490.73 – 542.61

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

520 – 392

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 869.8 ±8.7

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 199.49Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 121.9Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 169.34Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 719.5 ±8.7

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 105.48Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 162.08Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 275.05Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 2468, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

490.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9032, 2468, 8608

Auto

112.8 23%

Teleop

260.8 53%

Endgame

117.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1741, 2767, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

542.6 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1741, 2767, 1732

Auto

120.6 22%

Teleop

313.7 58%

Endgame

104.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.92 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score490.7pts

Blue projected score542.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.9
Score range: 396–638
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 912 vs event baseline 526.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

869.8Season APEX719.5

112.8Auto120.6

260.8Teleop313.7

117.2Endgame104.5

203Consistency210

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	96
teleop	268	196
endgame	141	100
foul	0	0
total	520	392

Result

Final score

520 – 392

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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