Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

492.52 – 324.29

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

522 – 674

Prediction missed · off by 189.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.3 ±9.3

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 311.58Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 67.94Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 113Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 825.7 ±9.3

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 155.58Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 113.01Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 55.7Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 1002, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.5 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1261, 1002, 2377

Auto

104.4 22%

Teleop

262.1 54%

Endgame

116.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 469, 4143, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 469, 4143, 4499

Auto

67.2 21%

Teleop

166.4 51%

Endgame

89.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.01 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score492.5pts

Blue projected score324.3pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168.2
Score range: 230–587
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1196 vs event baseline 524.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.3Season APEX825.7

104.4Auto67.2

262.1Teleop166.4

116.5Endgame89.9

184Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	130
teleop	278	413
endgame	174	131
foul	0	0
total	522	674

Result

Final score

522 – 674

Prediction missed · off by 189.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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