Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

552.75 – 428.8

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

377 – 564

Prediction missed · off by 155.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 683.9 ±8.8

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 167.39Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 170.64Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 214.72Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 737.1 ±9.4

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 160.93Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 190.96Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 76.91Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7457, 3940, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

552.8 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7457, 3940, 3641

Auto

54.4 10%

Teleop

340.3 63%

Endgame

147.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 27, 6517, 45

/ 100 compat

Projected

428.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 27, 6517, 45

Auto

72.7 17%

Teleop

187.0 44%

Endgame

169.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.9 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score552.8pts

Blue projected score428.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 52%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124
Score range: 334–648
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 941 vs event baseline 529.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

683.9Season APEX737.1

54.4Auto72.7

340.3Teleop187

147.8Endgame169.9

176Consistency192

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	114
teleop	210	270
endgame	48	180
foul	0	0
total	377	564

Result

Final score

377 – 564

Prediction missed · off by 155.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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