Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

431.6 – 657.11

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

464 – 840

Prediction correct · off by 107.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 916.3 ±9.3

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 194.44Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 135.37Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 101.79Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1045.8 ±9.3

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 264.09Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 138.4Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 254.62Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2056, 5712, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2056, 5712, 1710

Auto

110.2 26%

Teleop

283.4 67%

Endgame

26.9 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2481, 5907, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

657.1 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2481, 5907, 8044

Auto

131.9 20%

Teleop

405.3 61%

Endgame

128.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score431.6pts

Blue projected score657.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -225.5
Score range: 339–750
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1304 vs event baseline 515.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

916.3Season APEX1045.8

110.2Auto131.9

283.4Teleop405.3

26.9Endgame128.3

199Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	156
teleop	203	514
endgame	134	170
foul	0	0
total	464	840

Result

Final score

464 – 840

Prediction correct · off by 107.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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