Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

443.09 – 311.52

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

622 – 491

Prediction correct · off by 179.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 887.4 ±8.1

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 220.79Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 119.68Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 102.62Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 887.7 ±8.1

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 88.08Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 124.44Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 99Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 930, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.1 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 27, 930, 1792

Auto

62.5 14%

Teleop

233.9 53%

Endgame

147.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3414, 2468, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3414, 2468, 1768

Auto

74.5 24%

Teleop

113.7 36%

Endgame

123.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.91 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score443.1pts

Blue projected score311.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.6
Score range: 220–535
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 1113 vs event baseline 512.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

887.4Season APEX887.7

62.5Auto74.5

233.9Teleop113.7

147.7Endgame123.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	110
teleop	336	280
endgame	181	101
foul	0	0
total	622	491

Result

Final score

622 – 491

Prediction correct · off by 179.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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