Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

546.18 – 508.29

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 694.7 ±9.8

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 165.14Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 177.27Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 203.77Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 945.9 ±9.8

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 148.01Rank 27Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 231.33Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 128.95Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3176, 2767, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

546.2 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3176, 2767, 4028

Auto

69.9 13%

Teleop

293.1 55%

Endgame

168.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 195, 2481, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 195, 2481, 1710

Auto

75.5 15%

Teleop

299.4 60%

Endgame

126.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.57 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score546.2pts

Blue projected score508.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.9
Score range: 415–639
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 952 vs event baseline 514.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

694.7Season APEX945.9

69.9Auto75.5

293.1Teleop299.4

168.7Endgame126.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	67
teleop	238	330
endgame	147	32
foul	0	15
total	508	444

Result

Final score

508 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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