Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

431.28 – 506.71

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

428 – 638

Prediction correct · off by 67.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 877.9 ±9.3

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 103.18Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 119.76Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 208.34Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 815.8 ±9.3

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 296.97Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 71.05Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 138.69Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 484, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4143, 484, 5687

Auto

99.4 23%

Teleop

245.4 58%

Endgame

78.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1732, 8085, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

506.7 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1732, 8085, 2056

Auto

108.9 21%

Teleop

286.5 56%

Endgame

117.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score431.3pts

Blue projected score506.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.4
Score range: 339–599
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 1066 vs event baseline 513.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

877.9Season APEX815.8

99.4Auto108.9

245.4Teleop286.5

78.5Endgame117.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	170
teleop	246	359
endgame	82	109
foul	0	0
total	428	638

Result

Final score

428 – 638

Prediction correct · off by 67.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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