Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

340.77 – 395.45

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

542 – 485

Prediction missed · off by 145.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 759.7 ±8.7

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 123.35Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 178.06Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 39.36Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 757.7 ±9.3

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 76.44Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 153.01Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 166Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 10021, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1720, 10021, 1002

Auto

67.4 20%

Teleop

216.0 63%

Endgame

60.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3414, 1741, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.5 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3414, 1741, 1706

Auto

118.8 30%

Teleop

205.0 52%

Endgame

74.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.95 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score340.8pts

Blue projected score395.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.7
Score range: 251–485
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 500.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

759.7Season APEX757.7

67.4Auto118.8

216Teleop205

60.8Endgame74.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	139
teleop	317	272
endgame	109	74
foul	15	0
total	542	485

Result

Final score

542 – 485

Prediction missed · off by 145.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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