Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.08 – 310.44

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

485 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 178.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 816.5 ±9.8

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 45.96Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 48.28Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 116.84Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 903.1 ±8.2

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 63.29Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 197.02Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 50.13Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1710, 4143, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.1 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1710, 4143, 2767

Auto

89.6 42%

Teleop

152.7 72%

Endgame

-30.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 27, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.4 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 27, 11415

Auto

56.7 18%

Teleop

208.0 67%

Endgame

44.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.7 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score211.1pts

Blue projected score310.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.4
Score range: 117–404
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 878 vs event baseline 521.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

816.5Season APEX903.1

89.6Auto56.7

152.7Teleop208

-30.4Endgame44.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	35
teleop	290	186
endgame	111	172
foul	30	0
total	485	393

Result

Final score

485 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 178.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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