Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

330.01 – 423.68

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

397 – 755

Prediction correct · off by 199.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 721 ±9.3

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 126.29Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 74.86Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 128.86Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 799.7 ±8.7

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 128.86Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 196.16Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 98.66Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8608, 484, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

330 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8608, 484, 8085

Auto

66.0 20%

Teleop

170.3 52%

Endgame

93.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3641, 1261, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.7 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3641, 1261, 1833

Auto

102.0 24%

Teleop

254.3 60%

Endgame

67.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score330pts

Blue projected score423.7pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 81%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 56%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.7
Score range: 237–517
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1152 vs event baseline 515.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

721Season APEX799.7

66Auto102

170.3Teleop254.3

93.7Endgame67.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	103
teleop	187	407
endgame	94	230
foul	0	15
total	397	755

Result

Final score

397 – 755

Prediction correct · off by 199.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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