Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

446.28 – 500.55

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

593 – 572

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645.9 ±8.8

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 90.86Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 161.71Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 193.71Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 765.9 ±9.3

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 161.71Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 193.71Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 145.13Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2377, 10021, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2377, 10021, 359

Auto

103.4 23%

Teleop

248.0 56%

Endgame

94.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2056, 1024, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

500.6 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2056, 1024, 3176

Auto

95.9 19%

Teleop

280.1 56%

Endgame

119.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.84 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score446.3pts

Blue projected score500.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.3
Score range: 354–593
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 1165 vs event baseline 508.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645.9Season APEX765.9

103.4Auto95.9

248Teleop280.1

94.9Endgame119.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	138
teleop	283	301
endgame	195	133
foul	0	0
total	593	572

Result

Final score

593 – 572

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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