Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

544.7 – 504.58

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

593 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 801 ±8.7

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 203.43Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 126.45Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 214.82Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710.8 ±9.8

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 200.86Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 203.43Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 100.29Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1987, 1741, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

544.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1987, 1741, 5687

Auto

111.7 21%

Teleop

322.7 59%

Endgame

109.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4028, 1918, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

504.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4028, 1918, 7890

Auto

106.0 21%

Teleop

292.0 58%

Endgame

106.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.4 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score544.7pts

Blue projected score504.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 59%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 414–636
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1107 vs event baseline 503.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

801Season APEX710.8

111.7Auto106

322.7Teleop292

109.9Endgame106.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	76
teleop	331	251
endgame	123	187
foul	0	0
total	593	514

Result

Final score

593 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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