FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.61 – 107.66

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.3 ±12.8

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 8.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 31.36Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 56.23Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±11

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 11.91Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 53.47Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 42.28Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3559, 5188, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3559, 5188, 4926

Auto

29.3 32%

Teleop

50.1 55%

Endgame

11.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9554, 7617, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 7617, 1747

Auto

18.7 17%

Teleop

56.1 51%

Endgame

34.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score107.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12
Score range: 70–134
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.3Season APEX232.5

29.3Auto18.7

50.1Teleop56.1

11.6Endgame34.4

70Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	31
teleop	48	66
endgame	20	50
foul	0	30
total	105	177

Result

Final score

105 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Match videos

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