FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.04 – 182.72

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.2 ±9.3

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 104.87Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 24.27Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 86.9Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±10.5

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 11.68Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 80.42Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 90.62Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 7657, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 7657, 868

Auto

20.1 10%

Teleop

116.0 55%

Endgame

75.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9453, 6498, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 6498, 8116

Auto

37.2 20%

Teleop

107.7 58%

Endgame

41.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216pts

Blue projected score182.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.3
Score range: 157–242
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.2Season APEX239.3

20.1Auto37.2

116Teleop107.7

75.1Endgame41

2Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	37
teleop	165	83
endgame	121	77
foul	0	0
total	315	197

Result

Final score

315 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 pts

Match videos

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