FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.64 – 144.75

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±11

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 9.12Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 50.14Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 39.38Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.3 ±12.4

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 25.53Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 81.72Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 37.5Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9554, 7617, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 7617, 1747

Auto

17.5 17%

Teleop

50.2 50%

Endgame

33.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8742, 1720, 4485

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8742, 1720, 4485

Auto

27.1 19%

Teleop

84.5 61%

Endgame

27.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.6pts

Blue projected score144.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.1
Score range: 73–171
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.5Season APEX344.3

17.5Auto27.1

50.2Teleop84.5

33.1Endgame27.6

98Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	43
teleop	85	72
endgame	49	28
foul	0	0
total	160	143

Result

Final score

160 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 pts

Match videos

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