FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.45 – 117.99

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.9 ±11.2

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 3.66Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 26.14Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 31.65Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.7 ±11.2

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -0.3Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 75.48Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 42.81Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2197, 9491, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 9491, 8430

Auto

21.1 35%

Teleop

25.2 42%

Endgame

14.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10029, 447, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 447, 5484

Auto

26.4 24%

Teleop

62.6 56%

Endgame

22.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.5pts

Blue projected score118pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: 35–144
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.9Season APEX185.7

21.1Auto26.4

25.2Teleop62.6

14.3Endgame22.9

83Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	21
teleop	47	13
endgame	46	37
foul	0	80
total	131	151

Result

Final score

131 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Match videos

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