FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.03 – 130.43

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±10.5

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 8.01Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 77.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 86.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312 ±12.4

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 15.24Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 79.9Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 35.29Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9453, 6498, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 6498, 8116

Auto

37.3 22%

Teleop

95.9 55%

Endgame

40.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9790, 1720, 4485

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9790, 1720, 4485

Auto

30.8 26%

Teleop

64.2 54%

Endgame

24.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172pts

Blue projected score130.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.6
Score range: 105–197
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 141.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.3Season APEX312

37.3Auto30.8

95.9Teleop64.2

40.2Endgame24.6

67Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	23
teleop	142	102
endgame	49	43
foul	0	10
total	228	178

Result

Final score

228 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

Match videos

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