FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.96 – 92.62

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.2 ±9.3

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 99.31Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 19.81Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 81.84Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±11

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 7.28Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 47.89Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 37.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 7657, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

201 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 7657, 868

Auto

16.1 8%

Teleop

101.4 52%

Endgame

77.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9554, 7617, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 7617, 1747

Auto

15.8 17%

Teleop

48.8 52%

Endgame

29.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.3
Score range: 68–226
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.2Season APEX232.5

16.1Auto15.8

101.4Teleop48.8

77.5Endgame29.5

20Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	28
teleop	181	70
endgame	75	52
foul	5	0
total	300	150

Result

Final score

300 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Match videos

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