FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.54 – 106.46

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.7 ±11.2

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 3.6Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 79.95Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 46.99Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.3 ±12.8

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 12.15Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 35.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 59.2Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10029, 447, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 447, 5484

Auto

29.6 23%

Teleop

75.5 59%

Endgame

23.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3559, 5188, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3559, 5188, 4926

Auto

27.5 27%

Teleop

57.4 55%

Endgame

18.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.5pts

Blue projected score106.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.1
Score range: 81–156
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.7Season APEX211.3

29.6Auto27.5

75.5Teleop57.4

23Endgame18.8

61Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	41
teleop	32	80
endgame	26	11
foul	20	15
total	95	147

Result

Final score

95 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 38 pts

Match videos

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