FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.22 – 60

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±10.5

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 114.64Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 10.34Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 114.24Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.9 ±11.2

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 3.29Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 25.24Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 31.47Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 7198, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 7198, 3940

Auto

37.8 16%

Teleop

127.3 54%

Endgame

69.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2197, 9491, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 9491, 8430

Auto

20.3 35%

Teleop

24.9 43%

Endgame

12.9 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score239.2pts

Blue projected score60pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.2
Score range: 35–264
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 140.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.5Season APEX149.9

37.8Auto20.3

127.3Teleop24.9

69.7Endgame12.9

31Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	25
teleop	64	34
endgame	47	24
foul	5	0
total	150	83

Result

Final score

150 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 pts

Match videos

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