FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.34 – 184.63

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±10.5

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 105Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 1.07Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 106.27Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±10.5

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 12.55Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 81.2Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 90.88Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 7198, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 7198, 3940

Auto

31.6 15%

Teleop

110.4 52%

Endgame

68.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9453, 6498, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 6498, 8116

Auto

35.6 19%

Teleop

100.2 55%

Endgame

47.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.3pts

Blue projected score184.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.7
Score range: 159–238
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 146.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.5Season APEX239.3

31.6Auto35.6

110.4Teleop100.2

68.5Endgame47.9

49Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	24
teleop	143	121
endgame	62	62
foul	0	15
total	256	222

Result

Final score

256 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Match videos

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