FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.38 – 116.58

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±10.5

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 11.51Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 80.16Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 89.71Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±11

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 14.82Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 56.73Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 45.03Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9453, 6498, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 6498, 8116

Auto

34.4 19%

Teleop

102.4 56%

Endgame

46.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9554, 7617, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 7617, 1747

Auto

20.1 18%

Teleop

56.7 50%

Endgame

36.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.4pts

Blue projected score116.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.8
Score range: 91–207
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 146.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.3Season APEX232.5

34.4Auto20.1

102.4Teleop56.7

46.5Endgame36.6

57Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	23
teleop	86	65
endgame	56	26
foul	20	0
total	206	114

Result

Final score

206 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Match videos

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