FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.9 – 119.81

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±10.5

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 12.19Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 80.86Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 90.85Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.7 ±11.2

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 0.7Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 76.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 42.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9453, 6498, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 6498, 8116

Auto

36.9 20%

Teleop

102.9 55%

Endgame

46.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10029, 447, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 447, 5484

Auto

24.9 25%

Teleop

53.5 53%

Endgame

22.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.9pts

Blue projected score119.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.1
Score range: 94–210
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.3Season APEX185.7

36.9Auto24.9

102.9Teleop53.5

46.9Endgame22.8

51Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	101	51
endgame	46	34
foul	0	0
total	169	118

Result

Final score

169 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Match videos

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