Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
199.9 – 197.81
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
111 – 242
Prediction missed · off by 66.5 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.7 ±10.7
Season APEX 99Event APEX 81.65Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 38.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 79.63Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 37.66Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 80.52Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 79.63Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8116, 10029, 1720
89
/ 100 compatProjected
199.9 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 8116, 10029, 1720
Auto
36.5 18%
Teleop
105.1 53%
Endgame
57.6 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4926, 3940, 234
86
/ 100 compatProjected
197.8 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 4926, 3940, 234
Auto
23.5 12%
Teleop
106.3 54%
Endgame
67.5 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.65
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score199.9pts
Blue projected score197.8pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample132alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 2.1
- Score range
- 175–223
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
331.7Season APEX381.3
36.5Auto23.5
105.1Teleop106.3
57.6Endgame67.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 36 | 57 |
| teleop | 46 | 128 |
| endgame | 29 | 57 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 111 | 242 |
Result
Final score
111 – 242
Prediction missed · off by 66.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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