FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.37 – 107.94

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±11.7

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX -0.73Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 34.56Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 48.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.9 ±12.4

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 34.56Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 24.84Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 48.54Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6498, 3559, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6498, 3559, 447

Auto

25.2 30%

Teleop

44.6 53%

Endgame

15.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 761, 2197, 4485

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 2197, 4485

Auto

22.4 21%

Teleop

59.8 55%

Endgame

26.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.4pts

Blue projected score107.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.6
Score range: 59–131
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 127.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.7Season APEX323.9

25.2Auto22.4

44.6Teleop59.8

15Endgame26.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	34
teleop	47	73
endgame	66	10
foul	0	0
total	144	117

Result

Final score

144 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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