FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.13 – 200.37

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.4 ±11

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 13.82Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 29.35Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 44.96Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.2 ±11.2

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 107.94Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 92.56Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -0.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9453, 9491, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 9491, 1747

Auto

17.0 20%

Teleop

48.6 57%

Endgame

20.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3940, 8116, 10029

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3940, 8116, 10029

Auto

34.8 18%

Teleop

113.0 57%

Endgame

49.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.1pts

Blue projected score200.4pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.2
Score range: 61–227
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.4Season APEX267.2

17Auto34.8

48.6Teleop113

20Endgame49.1

72Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	38
teleop	33	131
endgame	7	65
foul	5	0
total	57	234

Result

Final score

57 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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