FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.14 – 174

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.9 ±9.8

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 33.13Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 48.82Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 27.19Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.3 ±11.2

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 89.71Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 5.21Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 79.08Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8430, 7617, 9491

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 7617, 9491

Auto

26.2 25%

Teleop

54.7 51%

Endgame

25.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8116, 2197, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

174 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8116, 2197, 447

Auto

36.1 21%

Teleop

97.3 55%

Endgame

42.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score174pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.9
Score range: 84–199
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.9Season APEX237.3

26.2Auto36.1

54.7Teleop97.3

25.8Endgame42.1

63Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	32
teleop	43	83
endgame	31	37
foul	0	0
total	91	152

Result

Final score

91 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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