FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.16 – 85.57

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.8 ±11.1

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 14.4Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 34.02Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 2.74Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.9 ±12.8

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 6.29Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 23.13Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 56.15Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9554, 8430, 7198

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 8430, 7198

Auto

16.6 32%

Teleop

10.8 21%

Endgame

24.9 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2197, 8742, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 8742, 4926

Auto

30.5 35%

Teleop

45.6 52%

Endgame

12.0 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score85.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.4
Score range: 24–113
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.8Season APEX209.9

16.6Auto30.5

10.8Teleop45.6

24.9Endgame12

67Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	23
teleop	31	50
endgame	23	32
foul	0	0
total	69	105

Result

Final score

69 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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