FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.08 – 28.97

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.5 ±12.4

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 73.73Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 26.25Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 9.1Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.5 ±12.7

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 10.27Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 10.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 8.65Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 5188, 9790

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1720, 5188, 9790

Auto

33.1 33%

Teleop

54.7 55%

Endgame

11.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7198, 3559, 9453

/ 100 compat

Projected

29 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7198, 3559, 9453

Auto

13.1 49%

Teleop

4.6 17%

Endgame

8.8 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score29pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.1
Score range: 4–134
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.5Season APEX108.5

33.1Auto13.1

54.7Teleop4.6

11.1Endgame8.8

67Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	13
teleop	94	17
endgame	55	8
foul	15	0
total	191	38

Result

Final score

191 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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