FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.77 – 233.4

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 1.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.6 ±10.4

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 57.07Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 18.79Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 79.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.6 ±9.3

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 82.15Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 114.83Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 36.42Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4926, 7657, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4926, 7657, 6498

Auto

38.0 25%

Teleop

70.7 46%

Endgame

44.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 868, 234, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 868, 234, 1747

Auto

16.6 7%

Teleop

128.1 57%

Endgame

81.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.8pts

Blue projected score233.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.6
Score range: 131–258
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.6Season APEX451.6

38Auto16.6

70.7Teleop128.1

44.8Endgame81.2

36Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	38
teleop	60	128
endgame	50	67
foul	0	0
total	153	233

Result

Final score

153 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 1.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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