FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.41 – 79.66

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.6 ±12.8

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 116.28Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 3.5Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 37.63Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.3 ±11.7

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 27.79Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 4.59Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 47.28Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3940, 10029, 4485

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3940, 10029, 4485

Auto

34.9 23%

Teleop

92.4 60%

Endgame

26.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8742, 9554, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8742, 9554, 5484

Auto

15.5 20%

Teleop

48.6 62%

Endgame

14.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.4pts

Blue projected score79.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.8
Score range: 55–182
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.6Season APEX175.3

34.9Auto15.5

92.4Teleop48.6

26.3Endgame14.9

85Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	18
teleop	75	51
endgame	44	18
foul	0	0
total	146	87

Result

Final score

146 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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