FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.58 – 131.05

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.2 ±11.7

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 7.28Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 80.36Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 50.94Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.6 ±10.5

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 69.56Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 54.23Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 7.26Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2197, 6498, 7617

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 6498, 7617

Auto

35.8 26%

Teleop

67.6 50%

Endgame

32.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 4926, 7198

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1720, 4926, 7198

Auto

37.9 30%

Teleop

66.4 52%

Endgame

23.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.6pts

Blue projected score131pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 106–164
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.2Season APEX350.6

35.8Auto37.9

67.6Teleop66.4

32Endgame23.8

86Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	34
teleop	57	65
endgame	30	59
foul	5	5
total	128	163

Result

Final score

128 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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