FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.73 – 86.71

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.7 ±9.9

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 44.17Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 112.29Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 2.27Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.4 ±11.2

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 33.52Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 35.97Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 17.22Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5484, 234, 9554

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5484, 234, 9554

Auto

16.8 10%

Teleop

95.3 59%

Endgame

48.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8430, 4485, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 4485, 7657

Auto

20.0 25%

Teleop

30.5 38%

Endgame

30.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.7pts

Blue projected score86.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72
Score range: 62–184
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.7Season APEX177.4

16.8Auto20

95.3Teleop30.5

48.2Endgame30.8

50Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	23
teleop	89	29
endgame	51	47
foul	15	0
total	188	99

Result

Final score

188 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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