FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.36 – 133.15

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.9 ±11

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 75.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 2.87Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 32.06Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±12.2

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 3.77Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 13.63Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 115.75Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6498, 7198, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6498, 7198, 1747

Auto

24.2 23%

Teleop

46.4 44%

Endgame

34.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3559, 9453, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3559, 9453, 3940

Auto

29.8 23%

Teleop

72.1 56%

Endgame

26.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.4pts

Blue projected score133.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.8
Score range: 85–158
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 139.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.9Season APEX228.7

24.2Auto29.8

46.4Teleop72.1

34.1Endgame26.1

43Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	35
teleop	77	84
endgame	61	34
foul	0	0
total	164	153

Result

Final score

164 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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