FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.92 – 70.9

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.2 ±11.2

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 33.44Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 47.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 108.1Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.1 ±12.4

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 9.66Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 35.24Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4485, 7617, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4485, 7617, 234

Auto

30.5 16%

Teleop

105.0 55%

Endgame

54.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2197, 8430, 5188

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 8430, 5188

Auto

26.1 38%

Teleop

30.2 44%

Endgame

12.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.9pts

Blue projected score70.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118
Score range: 46–214
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 139.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.2Season APEX148.1

30.5Auto26.1

105Teleop30.2

54Endgame12.4

108Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	20
teleop	144	11
endgame	47	14
foul	15	5
total	234	50

Result

Final score

234 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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