FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.89 – 167.86

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±11.2

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 56.05Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 81.66Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 9.18Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.1 ±9.8

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 25.56Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 89.5Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 52.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4926, 868, 10029

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4926, 868, 10029

Auto

26.5 19%

Teleop

76.2 53%

Endgame

39.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7657, 447, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7657, 447, 5484

Auto

34.7 21%

Teleop

88.0 52%

Endgame

46.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.9pts

Blue projected score167.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21
Score range: 122–193
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.7Season APEX217.1

26.5Auto34.7

76.2Teleop88

39.8Endgame46.5

38Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	86	43
endgame	23	27
foul	0	5
total	133	87

Result

Final score

133 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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