FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.59 – 281.7

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201 ±12.8

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 75.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 35.33Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 16.52Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.2 ±8.7

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 106.83Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 80.42Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 94.45Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 447, 4485, 9790

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 447, 4485, 9790

Auto

28.7 25%

Teleop

59.1 51%

Endgame

29.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 234, 1720, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 1720, 868

Auto

38.0 14%

Teleop

158.8 58%

Endgame

76.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.6pts

Blue projected score281.7pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.1
Score range: 101–309
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201Season APEX574.2

28.7Auto38

59.1Teleop158.8

29Endgame76.1

114Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	30
teleop	106	130
endgame	21	114
foul	0	10
total	171	284

Result

Final score

171 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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