FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.75 – 120.11

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±10.5

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 120.42Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 11.86Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 117.47Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.4 ±11.2

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 69.09Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 31.72Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 19.3Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3940, 9554, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3940, 9554, 761

Auto

36.8 15%

Teleop

157.5 63%

Endgame

57.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 1747, 9790

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1720, 1747, 9790

Auto

20.3 19%

Teleop

61.6 59%

Endgame

23.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score249.8pts

Blue projected score120.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.6
Score range: 95–275
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.3Season APEX327.4

36.8Auto20.3

157.5Teleop61.6

57Endgame23.3

63Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	34
teleop	87	45
endgame	86	25
foul	0	0
total	183	104

Result

Final score

183 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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